How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains

• Published in: Natural hazards and earth system sciences 2014-10, Vol.14 (10), p.2749-2759
• Main Authors: Schulte in den Bäumen, H, Moran, D, Lenzen, M, Cairns, I, Steenge, A
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Business logistics; Coronal mass ejection; Domestic; Economic impact; Economics; Electromagnetism; Global economy; Impact analysis; International trade; Space weather; Weather
• ISSN: 1684-9981; 1561-8633; 1684-9981
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-14-2749-2014

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.