Influenza pandemic periodicity, virus recycling, and the art of risk assessment

Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Ad...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2006-01, Vol.12 (1), p.34-39
Main Author: Dowdle, Walter R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Antibodies, Viral
Development and progression
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Epidemics
Humans
Influenza
Influenza A virus
Influenza A virus - classification
Influenza A virus - genetics
Influenza A virus - physiology
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - immunology
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Influenza, Human - virology
pandemic
Risk Assessment
Risk factors
Risk Management
swine influenza
United States
United States - epidemiology
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Additional data and passage of time proved the theory untenable. Much has been learned about influenza A virus and its natural history since 1976, but the exact conditions that lead to the emergence of a pandemic strain are still unknown. Current avian influenza events parallel those of swine influenza in 1976 but on a larger and more complex scale. Pre- and post-pandemic risk assessment and risk management are continuous but separate public health functions.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid1201.051013