Development and validation of a prognostic scoring model for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease: an observational cohort study

• Published in: BMC infectious diseases 2017-06, Vol.17 (1), p.436-436, Article 436
• Main Authors: Kumagai, Shogo, Ito, Akihiro, Hashimoto, Toru, Marumo, Satoshi, Tokumasu, Hironobu, Kotani, Aya, Yamaki, Haruka, Shirata, Masahiro, Furuuchi, Koji, Fukui, Motonari, Ishida, Tadashi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Age; Aged; Albumin; Anti-Bacterial Agents - therapeutic use; Body mass; Body mass index; Bronchiectasis; Cell number; Clinical epidemiology; Clinical respiratory medicine; Cohort analysis; Cohort Studies; Confidence intervals; Data processing; Female; Hazard identification; Health aspects; Health risk assessment; Hospitals; Humans; Infectious diseases; Lung diseases; Lung Diseases - drug therapy; Lung Diseases - microbiology; Lung Diseases - mortality; Male; Malignancy; Middle Aged; Milk; Mortality; Mycobacterial infections; Mycobacterium avium complex; Mycobacterium avium Complex - pathogenicity; Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare Infection - drug therapy; Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare Infection - mortality; Observational studies; Obstructive lung disease; Patients; Prognosis; Proportional Hazards Models; Respiratory infections (non-tubeculous); Retrospective Studies; Risk analysis; Risk Factors; Risk groups; ROC Curve; Serum albumin; Survival; Survival Rate; Treatment Outcome; Tuberculosis
• ISSN: 1471-2334; 1471-2334
• DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2544-0

Patients with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) lung disease (LD) have a heterogeneous prognosis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic scoring model for these patients using independent risk factors for survival. We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with MAC-LD from two hospitals (cohort 1, n = 368; cohort 2, n = 118). Cohort 1 was evaluated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). A prognostic scoring model composed of these factors was developed, and cohort 1 was stratified into three groups according to risk using the log-rank test. Finally, the prognostic scoring model was validated using the data of cohort 2. Seven independent risk factors for OS were selected from cohort 1, including the male sex, age ≥ 70 years, the presence of a malignancy, body mass index