Study of Driving Factors Using Machine Learning to Determine the Effect of Topography, Climate, and Fuel on Wildfire in Pakistan

• Published in: Remote sensing (Basel, Switzerland) Switzerland), 2022-04, Vol.14 (8), p.1918
• Main Authors: Rafaqat, Warda, Iqbal, Mansoor, Kanwal, Rida, Song, Weiguo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Climate change; Climate change research; Climate models; Climatic conditions; Coastal zone; Datasets; Decision trees; driving factors; Elevation; Environmental risk; Environmentalists; Forest & brush fires; fuel; Fuels; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Population growth; random forest; Remote sensing; Specific humidity; Support vector machines; Topography; Trends; Vapor pressure; Vegetation; wildfire; Wildfires
• ISSN: 2072-4292; 2072-4292
• DOI: 10.3390/rs14081918

As the climate changes with the population expansion in Pakistan, wildfires are becoming more threatening. The goal of this study was to understand fire trends which might help to improve wildland management and reduction in wildfire risk in Pakistan. Using descriptive analyses, we investigated the spatiotemporal trends and causes of wildfire in the 2001–2020 period. Optimized machine learning (ML) models were incorporated using variables representing potential fire drivers, such as weather, topography, and fuel, which includes vegetation, soil, and socioeconomic data. The majority of fires occurred in the last 5 years, with winter being the most prevalent season in coastal regions. ML models such as RF outperformed others and correctly predicted fire occurrence (AUC values of 0.84–0.93). Elevation, population, specific humidity, vapor pressure, and NDVI were all key factors; however, their contributions varied depending on locational clusters and seasons. The percentage shares of climatic conditions, fuel, and topographical variables at the country level were 55.2%, 31.8%, and 12.8%, respectively. This study identified the probable driving factors of Pakistan wildfires, as well as the probability of fire occurrences across the country. The analytical approach, as well as the findings and conclusions reached, can be very useful to policymakers, environmentalists, and climate change researchers, among others, and may help Pakistan improve its wildfire management and mitigation.