Application of an Epidemic Model to Turkey Data and Stability Analysis for the COVID-19 Pandemic

An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread all over the world with a high rate of transmission. The main purpose of this article is to define an epidemic model for the Covid-19 pandemic, to apply it to Turkey's data and to interpret it. Accordingly, a SEIR model was created to c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sakarya Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi 2021-12, Vol.25 (6), p.1438-1445
Main Authors: GÖZÜKIZIL, Ömer Faruk, KÖKER, Nejdet
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
covid-19 pandemic
seir model
stability
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Summary:An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread all over the world with a high rate of transmission. The main purpose of this article is to define an epidemic model for the Covid-19 pandemic, to apply it to Turkey's data and to interpret it. Accordingly, a SEIR model was created to calculate the infected population and the number of deaths caused by this epidemic, and the stability of the model was examined. Since all the parameters affecting the stability cannot be calculated clearly, it cannot be expected to reach a realistic result. For this reason, a model was created with accessible parameters. Later, the diseased and non diseased equilibrium points of the model were discussed. The Hurwitz theorem is used to find the local stability of the model, while the Lyaponov function theory is used to investigate its global stability. Finally, some numerical results are given with the help of MATLAB program.
ISSN:2147-835X
2147-835X
DOI:10.16984/saufenbilder.980797