A new grey quadratic polynomial model and its application in the COVID-19 in China

This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term. Analytical expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the new model are derived by using grey model technique and mathematical tools. With observations of the confirmed cases, the death cases an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2021-06, Vol.11 (1), p.12588-12588, Article 12588
Main Authors: Zhang, Jianbo, Jiang, Zeyou
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
639/166
692/699
Computer applications
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Humanities and Social Sciences
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Prediction models
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
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Summary:This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term. Analytical expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the new model are derived by using grey model technique and mathematical tools. With observations of the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases from COVID-19 in China at the early stage, the proposed forecasting model is developed. The computational results demonstrate that the new model has higher precision than the other existing prediction models, which show the grey model has high accuracy in the forecasting of COVID-19.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-91970-1