A consolidated potential analysis of bio-methane and e-methane using two different methods for a medium-term renewable gas supply in Germany

• Published in: Energy, sustainability and society sustainability and society, 2020-12, Vol.10 (1), p.1-17, Article 41
• Main Authors: Matschoss, Patrick, Steubing, Michael, Pertagnol, Joachim, Zheng, Yue, Wern, Bernhard, Dotzauer, Martin, Thrän, Daniela
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bio-methane potential; Biogas; Biogas installation; Bottom-up analysis; Carbon dioxide; Cluster analysis; Cogeneration; Consolidated estimates; Consolidation; Economics and Management; Energy; Energy Policy; Energy transition; Gases; Greenhouse gases; Imports; Methane; Natural gas; Original Article; Renewable and Green Energy; Retrofit; Sustainable Development; Top-down analysis
• ISSN: 2192-0567; 2192-0567
• DOI: 10.1186/s13705-020-00276-z

Background The German energy transition has entered a new phase and one important aspect is the question, to what degree the gas sector could be supplied with so-called “green” gases, i.e., gases from renewable sources. This paper focuses on the potential of domestic methane from biological origin (bio-CH 4 ) until 2030 that is estimated with two different methods. The comparison of the results provides a consolidated estimate. Methods In a bottom-up approach, a GIS-based cluster analysis was undertaken to estimate the potential on bio-CH 4 from the existing cogeneration biogas plant (BP) stock. In a top-down approach a meta-analysis of GHG-reduction scenarios with respect to bio-CH 4 was performed. The meta-analysis was also extended to methane from renewable electricity (e-CH 4 ) since the BP stock may play a role in the provision of CO 2 . Further, it included the year 2050 (the target year for most scenario studies) as well as issues like energy imports. Results The bottom-up approach yields a potential of 24.9 TWh of bio-CH 4 for 2030. This is well within the range of the top-down analysis of 11–54 TWh (average: 32.5 TWh) for that year. In some scenarios values for e-CH 4 where considerably higher, especially with respect to 2050, but in these studies the sources—including the CO 2 sources—are either not explained at all or they are due to imports of e-CH 4 in combination with direct air capture (DAC) rather than biogenic sources. Concerning the regional dispersion, the bottom-up analysis shows that the largest potentials (53% or 905 of the biogas plants) are located in the northern part of Germany, more particular in Lower-Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. These represent 54% or 602 MW of the installed capacity of the clusters. Conclusion The consistency of the outcomes of the two methodologically very different approaches may be called the main result of this research. Therefore, it provides a consolidated analysis of the potential for domestic supply of bio-CH 4 in 2030. Furthermore, the amount corresponds to 2.7–3.5% of the German natural gas consumption in 2018. Taken bio-CH 4 and e-CH 4 together it corresponds to 7.2–8.0%.