Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach

•We have analyzed the tourism industry time-series data.•We have considered the international tourist arrival variable to understand the relationship between the tourism industry and economic development.•The forecasting method is applied to predict the future growth of tourism industry. [Display om...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:MethodsX 2024-06, Vol.12, p.102723-102723, Article 102723
Main Authors: Devi, Renuka, Agrawal, Alok, Dhar, Joydip, Misra, A.K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autoregressive integrated moving average method
Forecasting
Mathematical model
Mathematics
Regression analysis
SARIMA model
Tourism
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Summary:•We have analyzed the tourism industry time-series data.•We have considered the international tourist arrival variable to understand the relationship between the tourism industry and economic development.•The forecasting method is applied to predict the future growth of tourism industry. [Display omitted] Currently, India has become one of the largest economies of the world in which tourism and hospitality have significantly contributed; however, the growth rate of tourism industry has been greatly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we have used the modeling approach to analyze and understand the growth pattern of Indian tourism industry. To achieve this, we consider the data of international tourist arrivals before and after the lockdown. The Dickey-Fuller test, AIC and BIC methods are used to obtain the best fitted model and further, the accuracy of obtained model is also analyzed. Data and forecasting indicate that the weather and public holidays significantly affect the tourism industry.
ISSN:2215-0161
2215-0161
DOI:10.1016/j.mex.2024.102723