Evaluating the impact of simulated land use changes under multiple scenarios on ecosystem services in Ji'an, China

• Published in: Ecological indicators 2023-12, Vol.156, p.111040, Article 111040
• Main Authors: Zhao, Qingjian, Shao, Junfan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ecosystem services; FLUS-InVEST framework; Land use change; Multi-scenario simulation
• ISSN: 1470-160X; 1872-7034
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111040

•Integrate Comprehensive index for ES (CES) into FLUS-InVEST framework.•Integrate various factors into neural network models to improve simulation accuracy.•The comprehensive development scenario can coordinate ecology and economy.•The rapid expansion of living space is inevitable in all scenarios. Ecosystem services (ES) play a crucial role in the sustainable development of human society. It is essential to clarify the impact of land use changes on ES to facilitate sound land spatial planning. This study focuses on the Ji'an area of Jiangxi Province as the research subject. The Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model is employed under the 'Production-life-ecological space' (PLES) policy scenario to simulate land use changes in the Ji'an area from 2020 to 2040. A comprehensive evaluation index for ecosystem services (CES) is constructed based on existing policies and ecological conditions in Ji'an City. It is then integrated into the FLUS-InVEST framework to simulate various development scenarios in the future. The results reveal that under the living space priority (LSP) scenario, construction land exhibits the highest growth rate, reaching 59.8%. Under the ecological space priority (ESP) scenario, the forest area is projected to increase by 0.54%. Only under the Productive Space Priority (PSP) scenario will cultivated land experience an increase, at a rate of 3.69%. Notably, CES remains relatively stable only in the ESP scenario, while declining in all other scenarios (ranging from 1.19% to 1.83%). Based on the simulation calculations, a Comprehensive Development (CD) plan for Ji'an is proposed, aiming to optimize the coordination among production, living, and ecological spaces and facilitate the restoration of ecosystem services. Compared to the 'business as usual' (BAU) scenario, the CES value of the CD scenario is expected to increase by 0.61%. In summary, this paper presents an exploratory study that combines the FLUS-InVEST framework with the unique development scenario of the Ji'an region in an innovative way. The proposed planning and recommendations for future sustainable development contribute to a deeper understanding of the impact of socio-economic activities on the ecological environment.