Flood hazard attribution and uncertainty analysis with climate changes in data scarce watersheds of southeastern Ethiopia

The interaction of the atmosphere and the land surface is vital in hydrological processes. In this paper, climate change impacts on streamflow are explored using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in one of the tropical watersheds, Wabi Shebele River Basin of Ethiopia. Regional climate model (RCM...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of water and climate change 2023-06, Vol.14 (6), p.1779-1797
Main Authors: Wudineh, Fraol Abebe, Moges, Semu Ayalew
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Bias
Climate change
climate change impact
Climate models
Climatic analysis
Climatic data
Environmental impact
flood hazard
Flood hazards
Floods
General circulation models
Hydrologic models
Hydrologic processes
Hydrology
Precipitation
Radiative forcing
Regional climate models
Regional climates
River basins
Rivers
sensitive parameters
Soil water
Stream discharge
Stream flow
swat model
Temperature
Uncertainty
Uncertainty analysis
Watersheds
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Summary:The interaction of the atmosphere and the land surface is vital in hydrological processes. In this paper, climate change impacts on streamflow are explored using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in one of the tropical watersheds, Wabi Shebele River Basin of Ethiopia. Regional climate model (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa region is used to analyze the basin's hydrological responses to climate forcing in the projected period. The result indicates that the watershed is likely to experience an increase in flood hazard with an increase in precipitation in the future as temperatures increase less than 2 °C. Flood hazard indices showed a larger value downstream of the river station (i.e., Gode) and a smaller value at the upper and middle stations with no change in climate variables (i.e., the baseline scenario, T + 0 °C, P + 0%). Based on separation method analysis, climate change has a greater impact on the streamflow and flood hazards in the region during the last four decades. Model uncertainty analysis reveals that simulated seasonal streamflow using RCMs has similar oscillation patterns to streamflow using observed climate data within uncertainty bands (UBs) in the study area with NSE and R2 values greater than 0.75 and 0.92, respectively.
ISSN:2040-2244
2408-9354
DOI:10.2166/wcc.2023.404