Estimating plant–insect interactions under climate change with limited data

Climate change may disrupt species–species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2022-07, Vol.12 (1), p.10554-10554, Article 10554
Main Authors: Tamura, Yui, Osawa, Takeshi, Tabuchi, Ken, Yamasaki, Kazuhisa, Niiyama, Tokumitsu, Sudo, Shigeto, Ishigooka, Yasushi, Yoshioka, Akira, Takada, Mayura B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/2165
631/158/2456
Cereal crops
Climate change
Data collection
Herbivores
Host-parasite interactions
Humanities and Social Sciences
Insects
multidisciplinary
Oryza sativa
Phenology
Rice
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Stenotus rubrovittatus
Trigonotylus caelestialium
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Summary:Climate change may disrupt species–species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limit data collection. In this study, we predict and evaluate the plant–insect interactions with limited data sets. We examined plant–insect interaction using observational data for development of the crop plant rice ( Oryza sativa ) and an effective accumulated temperature (EAT) model of two mirid bugs ( Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium ). We combined 11 years of records monitoring rice phenology and the predicted phenology of mirid bugs using spatially–explicit EAT models based on both spatially and temporally high resolutions temperature data sets, then evaluated their accuracy using actual pest damage records. Our results showed that the predicted interactions between rice and mirid bugs explained rice damage to some degree. Our approach may apply predicting changes to plant–insect interactions under climate change. As such, combining plant monitoring records and theoretical predictions of insect phenology may be effective for predicting species–species interactions when available data are limited.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-14625-9