Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina

• Published in: Heliyon 2022-06, Vol.8 (6), p.e09758-e09758, Article e09758
• Main Authors: Gómez, Andrea Alejandra, López, María Soledad, Müller, Gabriela Viviana, López, Leonardo Rafael, Sione, Walter, Giovanini, Leonardo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Hydroclimatic variables; Leptospiroris; Northeast of Argentina; SIR Epidemiological model
• ISSN: 2405-8440; 2405-8440
• DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09758

The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Paraná and Rosario), during the 2009–2018 period. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreak are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well in the last months of the year when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non- climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina. •A SIR Leptospirosis model considering hydroclimatic variables is proposed.•The model is implemented in 3 important cities of Argentina, for the 2009–2018 period.•Results are in good agreement with the registered data for a leptospirosis outbreak.•The tool could constitute a climatic service for the public health system. Hydroclimatic variables, Leptospiroris, Northeast of Argentina, SIR Epidemiological model.