On Zero-Inflated Hierarchical Poisson Models with Application to Maternal Mortality Data

• Published in: International journal of mathematics and mathematical sciences 2020-12, Vol.2020 (2020), p.1-8
• Main Authors: Tawiah, Kassim, Lotsi, Anani, Iddi, Samuel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Attended births; Community planning; Generalized linear models; Ghana; Health care facilities; Health care industry; Health care reform; Health facilities; Health planning; Health services; Hospital facilities; Inflation (Finance); Maternal & child health; Maternal health services; Maternal mortality; Medical referrals; Midwifery; Midwives; Monte Carlo simulation; Mortality; Mothers; Obstetrics; Patient outcomes; Physicians; Poisson density functions; Pregnancy; Quality assessment; Regions; Regression models; Skilled labor; Statistical models; Sustainable development; Teaching hospitals; Teenage pregnancy; Womens health
• ISSN: 0161-1712; 1687-0425
• DOI: 10.1155/2020/1407320

Count outcomes are commonly encountered in health sector data. The occurrence of count outcomes that exhibit many zeros has necessitated the extension of the ubiquitous Poisson regression model to accommodate the zero inflation and overdispersion as a result of the extra dispersion. We explored different extensions of the Poisson model including mixed models within the generalized linear mixed model framework to account for the repeated measurement of outcomes. These models are applied to maternal mortality data from fifty-six health facilities in four regions of Ghana. The objective is to identify factors associated with maternal mortality. The best-fitting model, the zero-inflated Poisson generalized linear mixed model, revealed that maternal mortality in hospital facilities is influenced by the number of referrals (into and out) of the hospital facility, number of antenatal visits exceeding four, number of midwives, and number of medical doctors at the facility. To be able to achieve targeted results in reducing maternal mortality and achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 3, the government, together with the ministry of health, should provide adequate maternal health services, especially at the district and community level. Additionally, there is a need for increased investment in Community Health Planning Services and related healthcare infrastructure and systems within the context of the Ouagadougou Declaration, that is, improve the training of skilled birth workers (midwives and doctors) and employ them at clinics to deal with labour complications without referring them to major hospitals. Furthermore, a well-structured awareness campaign is needed with importance given to avoiding adolescent pregnancy and improving antenatal care attendance to, at least, four, the gold standard, before delivery. Also, we recommend quality assessment form an essential part of all services that are directed towards improving maternal health and that more emphasis is needed to be given on research with multiple allied partners.