Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading pig producers. A quantitative stocha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Pathogens (Basel) 2022-01, Vol.11 (1), p.76
Main Authors: Muñoz-Pérez, Carolina, Bosch, Jaime, Ito, Satoshi, Martínez-Avilés, Marta, Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
African swine fever
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Fever
Hogs
import
Imports
Infections
Infectious diseases
live pig
Mortality
Probability
quantitative risk assessment
Risk assessment
Spain
Standard deviation
Swine
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Summary:African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10 ), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.
ISSN:2076-0817
2076-0817
DOI:10.3390/pathogens11010076