Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of ya...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2017-01, Vol.23 (1), p.22-28
Main Authors: Marks, Michael, Mitjà, Oriol, Fitzpatrick, Christopher, Asiedu, Kingsley, Solomon, Anthony W, Mabey, David C W, Funk, Sebastian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Anti-Bacterial Agents - therapeutic use
Azithromycin - therapeutic use
Care and treatment
Computer Simulation
Disease Eradication - methods
Disease Eradication - statistics & numerical data
Disease transmission
Female
Humans
Male
Markov Chains
mass drug administration
Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication
mathematical modelling
MDA
Models, Statistical
Neglected Diseases - epidemiology
Neglected Diseases - prevention & control
neglected tropical diseases
NTDs
Recurrence
Risk factors
Skin lesion removal
Treponema pallidum - pathogenicity
Treponema pallidum - physiology
Tropical Climate
Yaws
Yaws - epidemiology
Yaws - prevention & control
Yaws - transmission
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Summary:Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R ]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R . At high estimates of R with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid2301.160487