Hydropower and climate change, insights from the integrated water-energy modelling of the Drin Basin

• Published in: Energy strategy reviews 2023-07, Vol.48, p.101098, Article 101098
• Main Authors: Almulla, Youssef, Zaimi, Klodian, Fejzić, Emir, Sridharan, Vignesh, de Strasser, Lucia, Gardumi, Francesco
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate Change; Hydropower; Modelling; Transboundary water; Water-Energy-Nexus
• ISSN: 2211-467X; 2211-4688; 2211-467X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2023.101098

The understanding of the transboundary impact of Climate Change on hydropower is not well-established in the literature, where few studies take a system perspective to understand the relative roles of different technological solutions for coordinated water and energy management. This study contributes to addressing this gap by introducing an open-source, long-term, technologically-detailed water and energy resources cost-minimisation model for the Drin River Basin, built in OSeMOSYS. The analysis shows that climate change results in a 15–52% annual decline in hydro generation from the basin by mid-century. Albania needs to triple its investments in solar and wind to mitigate the risk of climate change. Changing the operational rules of hydropower plants has a minor impact on the electricity supply. However, it can spare significant storage volume for flood control. •We explore the impact of climate change and floods on the Drin River Basin (DRB), in southeast Europe.•We develop an open source multi-country electricity system model with representation of the hydrological system.•Changing climate results in a non-negligible decline in hydro generation by mid-century.•Non-hydro renewables play an important role in mitigating the impact of climate change on electricity supply.•Changing the operational rules of the dams to accommodate floods has a minor impact on the annual electricity generation.