A New Conformable Fractional-Order Time-Delay Grey Bernoulli Model with the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Rural Regional Economy

To further promote the development of the grey system theory, this paper develops a novel conformable fractional-order grey Bernoulli model with a time-delay effect, namely, the CFTDNGBM (1, 1) model. In addition, the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) is incorporated into the system of the mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of mathematics (Hidawi) 2023-01, Vol.2023, p.1-21
Main Authors: Wang, Ran, Liu, Hui, Yang, Qinwen, Du, Hongmei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Arithmetic
Consumption
Deep learning
Delay
Forecasting
Grey prediction
Mathematics
Optimization
Optimization algorithms
Prediction models
Regional development
System theory
Teaching methods
Time series
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Summary:To further promote the development of the grey system theory, this paper develops a novel conformable fractional-order grey Bernoulli model with a time-delay effect, namely, the CFTDNGBM (1, 1) model. In addition, the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) is incorporated into the system of the model to solve the hyperparameters existing in the model. Compared with the previous grey prediction models, the CFTDNGBM (1, 1) model with a conformable fractional-order accumulation operation (CFAO), time-delay factor, and Bernoulli parameter has stronger compatibility in structure. The proposed model and its nine competitive models with excellent performance are used to predict and analyze the consumption level and per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents in China to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. The case results show that in both cases, the seven descriptive indicators of the CFTDNGBM (1, 1) model are higher than those of its competing models. Therefore, the CFTDNGBM (1, 1) model has a certain application value.
ISSN:2314-4629
2314-4785
DOI:10.1155/2023/2017167