Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previou...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:eLife 2020-11, Vol.9
Main Authors: Morris, Dylan H, Petrova, Velislava N, Rossine, Fernando W, Parker, Edyth, Grenfell, Bryan T, Neher, Richard A, Levin, Simon A, Russell, Colin A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Antibodies
Antibodies, Neutralizing - genetics
Antibodies, Neutralizing - immunology
Antibodies, Viral - immunology
antibody-mediated selection
Biological Evolution
cross scale evolutionary dynamics
Evolutionary Biology
Genetic Variation - genetics
Health aspects
Humans
Influenza
Influenza A virus - genetics
Influenza A virus - immunology
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype - genetics
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype - immunology
Influenza virus
Influenza viruses
Influenza, Human - immunology
Influenza, Human - transmission
Influenza, Human - virology
Microbiology and Infectious Disease
Models, Statistical
Natural selection
Selection, Genetic - genetics
Selection, Genetic - immunology
Vaccination
Viral antibodies
Virion - genetics
Virion - immunology
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Description
Summary:Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously-infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within-host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.
ISSN:2050-084X
2050-084X
DOI:10.7554/eLife.62105