Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300

Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of glaciology 2020-02, Vol.66 (255), p.97-112
Main Authors: Schmidt, Louise Steffensen, Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna, Pálsson, Finnur, Langen, Peter L., Guđmundsson, Sverrir, Björnsson, Helgi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic conditions
Computer simulation
Energy balance
Evolution
Feedback
Future climates
General circulation models
Glaciation
glacier flow
glacier modelling
Glacier retreat
glacier volume
Glaciers
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Ice
ice cap
Ice caps
Ice sheet models
Ice sheets
Lapse rate
Precipitation
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Sheet modelling
Simulation
Studies
Velocity
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Summary:Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction.
ISSN:0022-1430
1727-5652
DOI:10.1017/jog.2019.90