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A Regional Frequency Analysis of Tide Gauges to Assess Pacific Coast Flood Risk

A regional frequency analysis (RFA) of tide gauge (TG) data fit with a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to estimate contemporary extreme sea level (ESL) probabilities and the risk of a damaging flood along Pacific Basin coastlines. Methods to localize and spatially granulate the regiona...

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Published in:Frontiers in Marine Science 2020-10, Vol.7
Main Authors: Sweet, William V., Genz, Ayesha S., Obeysekera, Jayantha, Marra, John J.
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description A regional frequency analysis (RFA) of tide gauge (TG) data fit with a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to estimate contemporary extreme sea level (ESL) probabilities and the risk of a damaging flood along Pacific Basin coastlines. Methods to localize and spatially granulate the regional ESL (sub-annual to 500-yr) probabilities and their uncertainties are presented to help planners of often-remote Pacific Basin communities assess (ocean) flood risk of various threshold severities under current and future sea levels. Downscaling methods include use of local TG observations of various record lengths (e.g., 1-19+ years), and if no in-situ data exist, tide range information. Low-probability RFA ESLs localized at TG locations are higher than other recent assessments and generally more precise (narrower confidence intervals). This is due to increased rare-event sampling as measured by numerous TGs regionally. For example, the 100-yr ESLs (1% annual chance event) are 0.15 m and 0.25 higher (median at-site difference) than a single-TG based analysis that is closely aligned to those supporting recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments and a third-generation global tide and surge model, respectively. Height thresholds for damaging flood levels along Pacific Basin coastlines are proposed. These floods vary between about 0.6-1.2 m or more above the average highest tide and are associated with warning levels of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The risk of a damaging flood assessed by the RFA ESL probabilities under contemporary sea levels have about a (median) 20 to 25-yr return interval (4-5% annual chance) for TG locations along Pacific coastlines. Considering localized sea level rise projections of the IPCC associated with a global rise of about 0.5 m by 2100 under a reduced emissions scenario, damaging floods are projected to occur annually by 2055 and >10 times/year by 2100 at the majority of TG locations.
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Considering localized sea level rise projections of the IPCC associated with a global rise of about 0.5 m by 2100 under a reduced emissions scenario, damaging floods are projected to occur annually by 2055 and &gt;10 times/year by 2100 at the majority of TG locations.</abstract><cop>Lausanne</cop><pub>Frontiers Research Foundation</pub><doi>10.3389/fmars.2020.581769</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Annual
Climate change
Coasts
Cyclones
Decision making
Environmental assessment
Environmental risk
extreme sea levels
flood risk
Floods
Frequency analysis
Gauges
Hydrologic data
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Locations (working)
Methods
Probability
Probability theory
Rain
regional frequency analysis
Risk assessment
Sea level
Sea level changes
sea level rise
Tidal waves
Tide gauges
Tides
title A Regional Frequency Analysis of Tide Gauges to Assess Pacific Coast Flood Risk
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