Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021

Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and September 2021 f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2023-01, Vol.13 (1), p.86-86, Article 86
Main Authors: Jayaraj, Vivek Jason, Chong, Diane Woei-Quan, Wan, Kim-Sui, Hairi, Noran Naqiah, Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala, Rampal, Sanjay, Ng, Chiu-Wan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
692/308/174
692/699/255/2514
Age
Coronaviruses
Cost of Illness
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Ethnicity
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Malaysia - epidemiology
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Public health
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Statistical analysis
Traffic accidents & safety
Trends
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Summary:Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and September 2021 from the Department of Statistics Malaysia was utilised. Baseline mortality was estimated using the Farrington algorithm and data between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2019. The occurrence of excess all-cause mortality by geographic-, age- and sex-stratum was examined from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2021. A sub-analysis was also conducted for road-traffic accidents, ethnicity and nationality. Malaysia had a 5.5–23.7% reduction in all-cause mortality across 2020. A reversal is observed in 2021, with an excess of 13.0–24.0%. Excess mortality density is highest between July and September 2021. All states and sexes reported excess trends consistent with the national trends. There were reductions in all all-cause mortalities in individuals under the age of 15 (0.4–8.1%) and road traffic accident-related mortalities (36.6–80.5%). These reductions were higher during the first Movement Control Order in 2020. Overall, there appears to be a reduction in all-cause mortality for Malaysia in 2020. This trend is reversed in 2021, with excess mortalities being observed. Surveillance of excess mortalities can allow expedient detection of aberrant events allowing timely health system and public health responses.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-26927-z