Impacts of current and climate induced changes in atmospheric stagnation on Indian surface PM2.5 pollution

Severe PM 2.5 pollution threatens public health in India. Atmospheric stagnation traps emitted pollutants, worsening their health impacts. Global warming is anticipated to alter future stagnation patterns, impacting the effectiveness of air quality policies. Here, we develop a region-specific index...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2024-08, Vol.15 (1), p.7448-12, Article 7448
Main Authors: Zhou, Mi, Xie, Yuanyu, Wang, Chenggong, Shen, Lu, Mauzerall, Denise L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/35/824
704/106/694/2739
Aerosols
Air pollution
Air quality
Carbon dioxide
Climate change
Climate models
Environmental policy
Environmental regulations
Global warming
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Outdoor air quality
Particulate matter
Public health
Regulations
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Stagnation
Winter
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Summary:Severe PM 2.5 pollution threatens public health in India. Atmospheric stagnation traps emitted pollutants, worsening their health impacts. Global warming is anticipated to alter future stagnation patterns, impacting the effectiveness of air quality policies. Here, we develop a region-specific index that characterizes meteorological conditions driving stagnation and associated PM 2.5 increases. Applying this index to an ensemble of climate models and global warming scenarios, we find that future stagnation changes result from both global CO 2 -driven circulation changes and local aerosol-driven meteorological responses. By 2100, we project an increase in winter stagnation in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of 7 ± 3 days that leads to an increase in PM 2.5 of ~7 ug/m 3  in a high-warming and high-aerosol scenario. However, annual stagnation occurrences decrease across most of India. Thus, stringent air quality regulations in the IGP during winters will be critical to reduce surface PM 2.5 concentrations as climate warms. Such regulations will directly improve air quality while reducing future stagnation occurrences, providing additional air quality benefits. Atmospheric stagnation worsens PM 2.5 pollution over India. This study develops a new index that projects ~7 more winter stagnation days over the IGP by 2100. Stringent enforcement of air pollution regulations will be critical to reduce health impacts.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-51462-y