Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China

Since the disclosure of the “Illegal vaccine operation series case in Jinan, Shandong” in March, 2016, this issue has attracted a great deal of attention and has led to public concerns about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines involved in this case. The main purpose of this paper is to scientifi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2017-06, Vol.7 (1), p.3883-10, Article 3883
Main Authors: Liao, Yilan, Lei, Yanhui, Ren, Zhoupeng, Chen, Huiyan, Li, Dongyue
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
692/499
692/700/1538
692/700/155
704/844/2787
Area Under Curve
China
Criminal Behavior
Drug Trafficking
Entropy
Geographical distribution
Geography
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
multidisciplinary
Population density
Risk
Risk factors
ROC Curve
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Socioeconomic Factors
Spatial distribution
Vaccines
Vaccines - adverse effects
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Since the disclosure of the “Illegal vaccine operation series case in Jinan, Shandong” in March, 2016, this issue has attracted a great deal of attention and has led to public concerns about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines involved in this case. The main purpose of this paper is to scientifically and scrupulously predict the possible geographic distribution of illegal vaccines in China, and provide a foundation to guide future governmental policies and actions. A species distribution model was used because of the advantages of using presence/pseudo-absence or presence-only data, and it performs well with incomplete species distribution data. A series of socioeconomic variables were used to simulate habitat suitability distribution. Maxent (Maximum Entropy Model) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production) were used to predict the risks of illegal vaccines in China, and define the spatial distribution and significant factors of the area at risk from illegal vaccines. Jackknife tests were used to evaluate the relative importance of socioeconomic variables. It was found that: (1) Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui are the main high-risk areas impacted by the vaccines involved in Jinan case. (2) Population density and industrial structure are the main socioeconomic factors affecting areas which may be at risk from illegal vaccines.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-03512-3