Climate‐induced distribution dynamics of Plebeia flavocincta, a stingless bee from Brazilian tropical dry forests

• Published in: Ecology and evolution 2020-09, Vol.10 (18), p.10130-10138
• Main Authors: Maia, Ulysses Madureira, Miranda, Leonardo de Sousa, Carvalho, Airton Torres, Imperatriz‐Fonseca, Vera Lucia, Oliveira, Guilherme Corrêa, Giannini, Tereza Cristina
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Anthropogenic factors; Availability; Biodiversity; Caatinga; Climate; Climate change; Current distribution; Dry forests; expansion; Flora; Generalized linear models; geographic distribution; Geographical distribution; Habitat availability; Habitat loss; Habitats; Human influences; Insects; Meliponin; Online data bases; Original Research; Plebeia flavocincta; pollinator; Precipitation; Tropical forests
• ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6674

Aim The objective of this study is to estimate the current potential geographic distribution of Plebeia flavocincta and to evaluate the influence of climate on the dynamics of suitable habitat availability in the past and in the future. Location Northeast region of Brazil and dry forest areas. Methods The habitat suitability modeling was based on two algorithms, two global circulation models, and six different scenarios. We used this tool to estimate the areas of occurrence in the past (Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum), in the present, and in the future (years 2050 and 2070). Results According to the models, P. flavocincta had great dynamics in the availability of suitable habitats with periods of retraction and expansion of these areas in the past. Our results suggest that this taxon may benefit in terms of climate suitability gain in Northeast Brazil in the future. In addition, we identified high‐altitude areas and the eastern coast as climatically stable. Conclusion The information provided can be used by decision makers to support actions toward protecting and sustainably managing this taxon. Protection measures for this taxon are particularly important because this insect contributes to the local flora and, although our results indicate that the climate may favor this taxon, other factors can negatively affect it, such as high levels of habitat loss due to anthropogenic activities. We analyzed the influence of climate on the dynamics of suitable areas and presented priority areas for the conservation of a stingless bee, an important pollinator in the endemic and threatened dry forest biome distributed across northeastern Brazil. Yellow areas represent locations indicated by all scenarios as suitable for the species considering (a) past, present, future and (b) present and future climate conditions.