A Test of the Markov Prediction Model: The Case of Isparta

Projections and predictions of urban growth provide information that can lead to a certain level of preparedness for making cities resilient and sustainable. To ascertain the degree of confidence in predicting urban growth, this paper back-tests the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Prediction Model (PM...

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Published in:Mimarlık bilimleri ve uygulamaları dergisi $b (Online) 2022-04, Vol.7 (Özel Sayı), p.114-128
Main Authors: AJİBOYE, Jesugbemi Olaoye, EREN, Şirin Gülcen, UGESE, Andrew Ayangeaor
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
cellular automata
city planning
hücresel otomat
isparta
kentsel büyüme
markov prediction model
markov tahmin modeli
rs & gis
ua ve cbs
urban growth
şehir planlama
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container_end_page 128
container_issue Özel Sayı
container_start_page 114
container_title Mimarlık bilimleri ve uygulamaları dergisi $b (Online)
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creator AJİBOYE, Jesugbemi Olaoye
EREN, Şirin Gülcen
UGESE, Andrew Ayangeaor
description Projections and predictions of urban growth provide information that can lead to a certain level of preparedness for making cities resilient and sustainable. To ascertain the degree of confidence in predicting urban growth, this paper back-tests the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Prediction Model (PM) by comparing the results of the model for 2010 and 2020 with the actual land-use patterns and growth of Isparta for the same years. The data used are Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The images were classified and used to perform the CA-Markov PM. The findings show that successive changes in land use in Isparta display average proximity to the CA-Markov PM results, with strong positive correlations of 0.8559 in 2010 and 0.8494 in 2020. It is therefore attested that amongst other models the CA-Markov PM can be used as a mathematical model for simulating urban growth in Isparta.
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subjects cellular automata
city planning
hücresel otomat
isparta
kentsel büyüme
markov prediction model
markov tahmin modeli
rs & gis
ua ve cbs
urban growth
şehir planlama
title A Test of the Markov Prediction Model: The Case of Isparta
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