Stochastic Models for the Infectivity Function in an Infinite Population of Susceptible Individuals

Two stochastic models to study the course of the transient behaviour of the total infectivity present in an infinite population of susceptible individuals are developed. The conditional intensity function of the contagion comprises two components: one is due to the external sources only and the othe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of probability and statistics 2017-01, Vol.2017 (2017), p.1-6
Main Authors: Arunachalam, Viswanathan, Blanco, Liliana
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Binomial distribution
Ebola virus
Economic models
Infections
Infectious diseases
Mathematical models
Parameter estimation
Parameters
Population
Population (statistical)
Probability distribution
Statistics
Stochastic models
Stochasticity
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Summary:Two stochastic models to study the course of the transient behaviour of the total infectivity present in an infinite population of susceptible individuals are developed. The conditional intensity function of the contagion comprises two components: one is due to the external sources only and the other is the contribution of each of the infected persons which is nonstationary in nature. The statistical characteristics of the number of infected individuals at any time are explicitly obtained. Estimation of the model parameters is also indicated.
ISSN:1687-952X
1687-9538
DOI:10.1155/2017/9064821