Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature–mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a globa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2019-10, Vol.10 (1), p.4640-8, Article 4640
Main Authors: Yin, Qian, Wang, Jinfeng, Ren, Zhoupeng, Li, Jie, Guo, Yuming
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/844/2739/2807
704/844/841
Acclimatization
Adaptability
Climate change
Environmental Exposure
Geography
Global climate
Global Warming - mortality
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Linear Models
Mapping
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Survival Analysis
Temperature
Temperature effects
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Summary:Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature–mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time. Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) changes geographically and over time. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 global locations during 1984-2018, the authors found that MMT is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period, and the association between MFT and MMT is not changed when adjusted for lattitude and study year.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y