Bayesian Survival Analysis Model for Girth Weld Failure Prediction

The formation and development of a dataset for pipeline systems have affected the management and decision-making of pipeline operators. The dataset, combined with a proposed theoretical analysis method, can provide significant improvement for the safe and economic operation of pipelines. On the basi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied sciences 2019, Vol.9 (6), p.1150
Main Authors: Feng, Qingshan, Sha, Shengyi, Dai, Lianshuang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidents
Bayesian analysis
Construction
Data analysis
Earthquakes
Evaluation
Inspection
Methods
Natural gas
Risk assessment
Risk factors
Seismic engineering
Survival
Survival analysis
survival analysis, pipeline, girth weld, prediction
Weld defects
Welded joints
Welding
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The formation and development of a dataset for pipeline systems have affected the management and decision-making of pipeline operators. The dataset, combined with a proposed theoretical analysis method, can provide significant improvement for the safe and economic operation of pipelines. On the basis of the pipeline data and its essential impact on pipeline risk assessment, the authors propose for the first time the Staged Bayesian failure model for girth welds of a pipeline, using the “tree-type” accident theory and Bayesian survival analysis method. This model of girth welds is consistent with the distribution of Kaplan–Meier functions and can predict the influence of different factors on the survival probability of girth welds. These new research results can lay the technical foundation for the failure analysis of pipeline girth welds.
ISSN:2076-3417
2076-3417
DOI:10.3390/app9061150