State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

• Published in: Nature communications 2019-03, Vol.10 (1), p.1005-14, Article 1005
• Main Authors: Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon N., Reyer, Christopher, Zhao, Fang, Ciais, Philippe, Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis, Huber, Veronika, Lotze, Heike K., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vautard, Robert, Wada, Yoshihide, Breuer, Lutz, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Chang, Jinfeng, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, de Wit, Allard, Eddy, Tyler D., Folberth, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lawrence, Peter, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Müller, Christoph, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Orth, René, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pokhrel, Yadu, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Sakurai, Gen, Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Steinkamp, Jörg, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Hanqin, Tittensor, Derek P., Volkholz, Jan, Wang, Xuhui, Warszawski, Lila
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 704/106; 704/106/694; 704/172/4081; 706/2805; Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica; Agricultural ecosystems; Alterra - Earth informatics; Assessments; Climate change; Climate models; Climatic conditions; Climatology; Drought; Earth Informatics; Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics; Earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Economic models; Environmental assessment; Environmental changes; Heat waves; Humanities and Social Sciences; Hydroelectric power; multidisciplinary; PE&RC; Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences; Physique, chimie, mathématiques & sciences de la terre; River basins; Rivers; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Sciences of the Universe; Terrestrial ecosystems; Terrestrial environments; Water resources; Water Systems and Global Change; WIMEK
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought. Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.