Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

• Published in: Earth system dynamics 2023-02, Vol.14 (1), p.147-171
• Main Authors: Massoud, Elias C, Andrews, Lauren, Reichle, Rolf, Molod, Andrea, Park, Jongmin, Ruehr, Sophie, Girotto, Manuela
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Aquatic resources; Benchmarks; Climate system; Correlation; Data integration; El Nino; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Equivalence; Evaluation; Forecasting; Forecasting skill; Hazard assessment; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrologic forecasting; Hydrological cycle; Hydrology; Hydrometeorology; Initial conditions; Lead time; Management; Meteorology and Climatology; Mitigation; Moisture effects; Mountains; Oceanic analysis; Precipitation; R&D; Rain and rainfall; Regions; Research & development; Satellite observation; Satellites; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal variability; Seasonal variation; Seasonal variations; Seasonality; Snow; Snow cover; Snow-water equivalent; Soil moisture; Soil surfaces; Soil temperature; Soil water storage; Topography; Variables; Water; Water availability; Water in agriculture; Water management; Water resources; Water resources management; Water storage; Water-supply, Agricultural; Weather forecasting; Wind
• ISSN: 2190-4979; 2190-4987; 2190-4987
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-147-2023

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of Ranom=0.18 for precipitation to Ranom=0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from Ranom=0.13 for snow water equivalent to Ranom=0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.