Factors Affecting Crash Frequencies: A Negative Binomial Regression Based Analysis of Indus Highway, Pakistan

The increase in vehicular traffic have also increased the highway crash frequency with the passage of time. Improvements in highway safety is of vital importance as it could save vast life and monetary losses. The highway crash frequency analysis of major Pakistani highways is a subject less discove...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:MATEC web of conferences 2019, Vol.296, p.1005
Main Authors: Ullah Khan, Rafi, Yin, Jingbo, Shair Mustafa, Faluk
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Causation
Crashes
Dependent variables
Frequency analysis
Highway safety
Independent variables
Negligence
Regression analysis
Roads & highways
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Summary:The increase in vehicular traffic have also increased the highway crash frequency with the passage of time. Improvements in highway safety is of vital importance as it could save vast life and monetary losses. The highway crash frequency analysis of major Pakistani highways is a subject less discovered and many important strategic and trade routes are not studied in this regard. This study is aimed to analyze the crash frequency and the prominent factors that cause these crashes on a 302 km section of Indus highway; one of the most important trade routes of the country. Eight years’ data from 2011 till 2018 was arranged into 19 variables where the crash frequency is set as dependent variable, while the eighteen prominent causation factors as independent variables. The tool used for analysis was negative binomial regression being run in the SPSS software. The results indicate that the driver’s behavior, understanding & risk recognition, negligence and law adherence have a significant effect on the crash frequency. Furthermore, highway crash frequency significantly increases with increase in highway segment lengths, number of lanes and lane widths. Similarly, the highway crash frequency significantly enhances when the light, pavement surface and climate condition gets deteriorated. The results of this study are of vital importance to government, transportation companies and general public in order to recognize the most important accident causing factors and devise the transport policies, rules and behaviors accordingly.
ISSN:2261-236X
2274-7214
2261-236X
DOI:10.1051/matecconf/201929601005