Development and validation of a model for early survival prediction following liver transplantation based on donor and recipient characteristics

Circulating cytokine levels not only correlate with the progression of liver disease but also serve as indicators for the infection status of the body. Growing evidence points to the connection between donor cytokines and graft function following transplantation. This study set out to explore the cl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Annals of medicine (Helsinki) 2024-12, Vol.56 (1), p.2410404
Main Authors: Xie, Zhonghao, Lin, Xiaohong, Wang, Yan, Chen, Zhitao, Zeng, Ping, He, Xiaoshun, Ju, Weiqiang, Chen, Maogen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Cytokines - blood
early allograft dysfunction
fatty liver
Female
Graft Survival
Hepatology
Humans
inflammatory cytokines
Interleukin-10 - blood
Liver transplantation
Liver Transplantation - adverse effects
Liver Transplantation - mortality
Male
Middle Aged
prediction model
Prognosis
Tissue Donors - statistics & numerical data
Transplant Recipients - statistics & numerical data
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Summary:Circulating cytokine levels not only correlate with the progression of liver disease but also serve as indicators for the infection status of the body. Growing evidence points to the connection between donor cytokines and graft function following transplantation. This study set out to explore the clinical significance of donor cytokines in predicting liver transplantation prognosis. Data from 172 deceased donor liver transplantations conducted between 2017 and 2022, with available donor serum cytokine information, were collected. The subjects were randomly divided into estimation (  = 120) and validation (  = 52) groups to establish and validate the model. The newly developed SA10 score was compared against established models EAD, MEAF, L-GrAFT7, and L-GrAFT10. Donor IL-10, along with donor age and recipient AST peak value within the first 7 days post-operation, was identified as an independent factor associated with recipient survival and was incorporated into the SA10 score. SA10 exhibited robust predictive capability, particularly for 1-month survival (AUC = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.96), outperforming EAD (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.60-0.90,  = 0.04) and L-GrAFT7 (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.49-0.81,  
ISSN:0785-3890
1365-2060
1365-2060
DOI:10.1080/07853890.2024.2410404