Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent publ...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2020-11, Vol.26 (11), p.2669-2677
Main Authors: Spreco, Armin, Eriksson, Olle, Dahlström, Örjan, Cowling, Benjamin John, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Ljunggren, Gunnar, Jöud, Anna, Istefan, Emanuel, Timpka, Toomas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Epidemics
Epidemiologi
Epidemiology
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Health Sciences
Hälsovetenskap
Infectious diseases
Infektionsmedicin
Influenza
Information systems
Klinisk medicin
Medical and Health Sciences
Medicin och hälsovetenskap
Medicinska och farmaceutiska grundvetenskaper
Methods
Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008–2019
Pandemics
Population
Public health
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
respiratory diseases
Seasons
Statistics
Sweden
Telemedicine
vaccine-preventable diseases
viruses
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Summary:The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid2611.200448