Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households

•A new dynamic compartmental model involving two modes of transmission (public space and households) is proposed to evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission pattern of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China.•The quarantine reduces more than 70% of new infe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of infectious diseases 2020-07, Vol.96, p.503-505
Main Authors: Shen, Mingwang, Peng, Zhihang, Guo, Yuming, Rong, Libin, Li, Yan, Xiao, Yanni, Zhuang, Guihua, Zhang, Lei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Betacoronavirus
China - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
COVID-19
Households
Humans
Metropolitan-wide quarantine
Pandemics - prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Public space
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Short Communication
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Summary:•A new dynamic compartmental model involving two modes of transmission (public space and households) is proposed to evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission pattern of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China.•The quarantine reduces more than 70% of new infections in both households and the public space, as well as the deaths caused by COVID-19 pneumonia. Household transmission is the dominant route of disease spread regardless of quarantine.•The results will provide important evidence and scientific insights to other worldwide countries that are currently under quarantine. Hubei province in China has completed cycle of quarantine-resumption in 23rd Janauary and 8th April 2020, providing a unique opportunity as for now to assess its intervention impact and the pattern of SARS-COV-2 transmission during the quarantine period. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission route of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China. The intervention reduces more than 70% of new infections in both households and the public space, as well as the deaths caused by COVID-19 pneumonia. Household transmission is the dominant route of disease spread regardless of quarantine. This will provide important evidence and scientific insights to other worldwide countries that are currently under quarantine.
ISSN:1201-9712
1878-3511
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.019