Operational aspects of asynchronous filtering for flood forecasting

This study investigates the suitability of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF) and a partitioned updating scheme for hydrological forecasting. The AEnKF requires forward integration of the model for the analysis and enables assimilation of current and past observations simultaneously at...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrology and earth system sciences 2015-06, Vol.19 (6), p.2911-2924
Main Authors: Rakovec, O, Weerts, A. H, Sumihar, J, Uijlenhoet, R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Analysis
Catchment area
Data assimilation
Data collection
Discharge
Flood forecasting
Hydrologic forecasting
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Kalman filters
Mathematical models
Methods
Parameter estimation
River discharge
River networks
Soil
Soil moisture
Soils
Storage
Weather forecasting
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Summary:This study investigates the suitability of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF) and a partitioned updating scheme for hydrological forecasting. The AEnKF requires forward integration of the model for the analysis and enables assimilation of current and past observations simultaneously at a single analysis step. The results of discharge assimilation into a grid-based hydrological model (using a soil moisture error model) for the Upper Ourthe catchment in the Belgian Ardennes show that including past predictions and observations in the data assimilation method improves the model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between the soil moisture storage and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting, which is evaluated using several validation measures.
ISSN:1607-7938
1027-5606
1607-7938
DOI:10.5194/hess-19-2911-2015