Key Challenges in Modelling an Epidemic – What Have we Learned from the COVID-19 Epidemic so far

Mathematical modelling can be useful for predicting how infectious diseases progress, enabling us to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Different modelling techniques have been used to predict and simulate the spread of COVID-19, but they have not alw...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Zdravstveno varstvo 2020-09, Vol.59 (3), p.117-119
Main Authors: Eržen, Ivan, Kamenšek, Tina, Fošnarič, Miha, Žibert, Janez
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 modelling
Decision making
Epidemic models
Epidemics
epidemiological aspects
Epidemiology
epidemiološki pogled na modeliranje
Health promotion
Infectious diseases
kakovost modelov
Mathematical models
model quality
modeliranje COVID-19
priporočene statistične metode
Public health
Reliability analysis
statistical recommendations
Viral diseases
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Mathematical modelling can be useful for predicting how infectious diseases progress, enabling us to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Different modelling techniques have been used to predict and simulate the spread of COVID-19, but they have not always been useful for epidemiologists and decision-makers. To improve the reliability of the modelling results, it is very important to critically evaluate the data used and to check whether or not due regard has been paid to the different ways in which the disease spreads through the population. As building an epidemiological model that is reliable enough and suits the current epidemiological situation within a country or region, certain criteria must be met in the modelling process. It might be necessary to use a combination of two or more different types of models in order to cover all aspects of epidemic modelling. If we want epidemiological models to be a useful tool in combating the epidemic, we need to engage experts from epidemiology, data science and statistics.
ISSN:1854-2476
0351-0026
1854-2476
DOI:10.2478/sjph-2020-0015