The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil

By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of vir...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 2007-12, Vol.102 (8), p.905-912
Main Authors: Melo, Paulo Roberto Santana de, Reis, Eliana Almeida Gomes, Ciuffo, Isolina Allen, Góes, Mônica, Blanton, Ronald Edward, Reis, Mitermayer Galvão dos
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aedes aegypti
Brazil - epidemiology
dengue
Dengue - epidemiology
Dengue - virology
Dengue virus
Dengue Virus - classification
Dengue Virus - genetics
Dengue Virus - isolation & purification
emerging diseases
Geography
Humans
Linear Models
modeling
Multivariate Analysis
PARASITOLOGY
public health
Serotyping
surveillance
TROPICAL MEDICINE
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Summary:By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r2 = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection.
ISSN:0074-0276
1678-8060
0074-0276
1678-8060
DOI:10.1590/S0074-02762007000800003