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Rainfall frequency analysis using event-maximum rainfalls – An event-based mixture distribution modeling approach
Rainfall frequency analysis, an essential work for water resources management, is often conducted by using the annual maximum rainfall series. For rainfall stations with short record lengths and outliers presence, the use of annual maximum series for rainfall frequency analysis may yield design rain...
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Published in: | Weather and climate extremes 2024-03, Vol.43 (C), p.100634, Article 100634 |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Citations: | Items that this one cites Items that cite this one |
Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | Rainfall frequency analysis, an essential work for water resources management, is often conducted by using the annual maximum rainfall series. For rainfall stations with short record lengths and outliers presence, the use of annual maximum series for rainfall frequency analysis may yield design rainfall estimates of higher uncertainties. Moreover, for regions with cyclostationary climate patterns, the annual maximum rainfalls may be caused by different prevalent storm types, which differ in terms of their occurrence frequency and storm rainfall characteristics. In this study, we propose a novel event-maximum-rainfall-based mixture distribution modeling approach for rainfall frequency analysis. By considering the event-maximum rainfalls of individual storm events, the sample size for parameter estimation increases, and the uncertainty of design rainfall estimates reduces. Mixture distribution modeling enables a thorough investigation of the contributing probabilities of different storm types to the annual maximum rainfall. Through rigorous stochastic simulation, we demonstrated the superiority of the proposed approach over the conventional annual maximum rainfall approach. The proposed approach was applied to four representative rainfall stations in Taiwan, and the results revealed that the proposed approach is more robust than the conventional annual maximum rainfall approach. The results provide insights into the contributions of individual storm types to the annual maximum rainfall.
•An EMS-based mixture distribution approach for rainfall frequency analysis is proposed.•The approach is suitable for regions with cyclostationary climate patterns.•The EMS-based approach is more robust than the AMS-based approach.•The EMS-based approach is suitable for frequency analysis under climate change. |
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ISSN: | 2212-0947 2212-0947 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100634 |