Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk

Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change and socio-economic development and are subject to substantial uncertainties. We thus assess future global tropical cyclone risk drivers and perform a systematic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We combine synthetic tropical cyc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Communications earth & environment 2023-12, Vol.4 (1), p.371-10, Article 371
Main Authors: Meiler, Simona, Ciullo, Alessio, Kropf, Chahan M., Emanuel, Kerry, Bresch, David N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate change
Climate models
Cyclones
Decision making
Economic development
Economic growth
Environmental risk
Global climate
Global climate models
Growth factors
Parameter sensitivity
Risk assessment
Sensitivity analysis
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Tropical cyclones
Uncertainty
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Summary:Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change and socio-economic development and are subject to substantial uncertainties. We thus assess future global tropical cyclone risk drivers and perform a systematic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We combine synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP6 global climate models for several emission scenarios with economic growth factors derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and a wide range of vulnerability functions. We highlight non-trivial effects between climate change and socio-economic development that drive future tropical cyclone risk. Furthermore, we show that the choice of climate model affects the output uncertainty most among all varied model input factors. Finally, we discover a positive correlation between climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone risk increase. We assert that quantitative estimates of uncertainty and sensitivity to model parameters greatly enhance the value of climate risk assessments, enabling more robust decision-making and offering a richer context for model improvement.
ISSN:2662-4435
2662-4435
DOI:10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w