Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2023-01, Vol.18 (4), p.e0284390
Main Authors: Linda Peters, Peter-Jan Engelen, Danny Cassimon
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynamics. On the basis of a case-study, that compares three routes from Syria to Europe, we demonstrate how well the real options analysis is in line with the development of the refugee flows.
ISSN:1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0284390