Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular mortality and contrast analysis within subgroups

• Published in: Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine 2024-02, Vol.11, p.1279890-1279890
• Main Authors: Song, Shoufang, Guo, Chen, Wu, Ruiyun, Zhao, Hong, Li, Qiang, Dou, Jia-Hao, Guo, Fan-Shun, Wei, Jin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: cardiovascular diseases; Cardiovascular Medicine; COVID- 19; disparity; mortality; predictive analysis
• ISSN: 2297-055X; 2297-055X
• DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2024.1279890

An increase in deaths has been perceived during the pandemic, which cannot be explained only by COVID-19. The actual number of deaths far exceeds the recorded data on deaths directly related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data from early and short-lived pandemic studies show a dramatic shift in cardiovascular mortality. Grounded in the post-pandemic era, macroscopic big data on cardiovascular mortality during the pandemic need to be further reviewed and studied, which is crucial for cardiovascular disease prevention and control. We retrieved and collected data associated with cardiovascular disease mortality from the National Vital Statistic System from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) platform based on the ICD-10 codes. We applied regression analysis to characterize overall cardiovascular disease mortality trends from 2010 to 2023 and built a time series model to predict mortality for 2020-2023 based on mortality data from 2010 to 2019 in order to affirm the existence of the excess deaths by evaluating observed vs. predicted mortality. We also conducted subgroup analyses by sex, age and race/ethnicity for the purpose of obtaining more specific sociodemographic information. All-cause age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for CVD dramatically increased between 2019 and 2021[annual percentage change (APC) 11.27%,