Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination

COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the envi...

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Published in:Heliyon 2022-11, Vol.8 (11), p.e11513-e11513, Article e11513
Main Authors: Akinwande, N.I., Ashezua, T.T., Gweryina, R.I., Somma, S.A., Oguntolu, F.A., Usman, A., Abdurrahman, O.N., Kaduna, F.S., Adajime, T.P., Kuta, F.A., Abdulrahman, S., Olayiwola, R.O., Enagi, A.I., Bolarin, G.A., Shehu, M.D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
advocacy
Bifurcation
Booster vaccine program
COVID-19
COVID-19 infection
Environmental contamination
herd immunity
humans
mathematical models
Optimal control analysis
people
pollution
public health
reproduction
vaccines
viruses
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Summary:COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the environment in the midst of booster vaccine program. Theoretically, we prove some basic properties of the full model as well as investigate the existence of SARS-CoV-2-free and endemic equilibria. The SARS-CoV-2-free equilibrium for the special case, where the constant inflow of corona virus into the environment by any other means, Ω is suspended (Ω=0) is globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number R0c0), the endemic equilibrium using the centre manifold theory is shown to be stable globally whenever R0c>1. The model is extended into optimal control system and analyzed analytically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Results from the optimal control simulations show that strategy E for implementing the public health advocacy, booster vaccine program, treatment of isolated people and disinfecting or fumigating of surfaces and dead bodies before burial is the most effective control intervention for mitigating the spread of Corona virus. Importantly, based on the available data used, the study also revealed that if at least 70% of the constituents followed the aforementioned public health policies, then herd immunity could be achieved for COVID-19 pandemic in the community. COVID-19; Booster vaccine program; Environmental contamination; Bifurcation; Optimal control analysis
ISSN:2405-8440
2405-8440
DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513