Assessing the Impact of Syrian Refugee Influx on the Jordanian Stock Exchange Market

• Published in: Risks (Basel) 2023-07, Vol.11 (7), p.114
• Main Authors: Al-Rousan, Nadia, Al-Najjar, Dana, Al-Najjar, Hazem
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Arab Spring; Civil war; Correlation analysis; Economic growth; Forecasts and trends; Geopolitics; Government spending; Investments; Jordan’s stock market; linear regression; market-capitalization-weighted index; Per capita; Politics; Refugees; Regression analysis; Securities industry; Securities markets; Services; Statistics; stepwise method; Stochastic models; Stock exchanges; Stock markets; Syrian civil war; Terrorism; Unemployment; Volatility; War
• ISSN: 2227-9091; 2227-9091
• DOI: 10.3390/risks11070114

The past decade has witnessed significant turmoil and political conflicts in several Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt, Syria, and Libya, called the Arab Spring. These revolutions did not only affect the countries mentioned previously; their neighboring countries were also directly affected. This study explores the impact of the Syrian refugee influx on the stock exchange market of one of its neighboring countries, namely Jordan. The Syrian civil war represents a recent catastrophic event that has resulted in over three million refugees migrating to various countries worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to examine the effect of the Syrian war on Jordan’s stock exchange market. The study utilizes the stock exchange indices as indicators of the performance of the exchange market, including Financials, Services, Industries, and General indices as dependent variables, and seven dummy variables are defined as representatives of the main events occurring in the Syrian civil war during the period 2011–2018 as independent variables. Multiple statistical analysis techniques, including correlation coefficients, error functions, and stepwise regression, are employed to analyze the selected variables. The findings reveal an inverse influence of the Syrian war on Jordan’s stock market. These findings can potentially enhance the development of prediction models for stock indices in Jordan and other countries by incorporating relevant variables.