Anthropogenic and atmospheric variability intensifies flash drought episodes in South Asia

Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of droughts that affect agriculture, water, and ecosystems and are commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics and underlying mechanisms in South Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Communications earth & environment 2024-12, Vol.5 (1), p.267-11, Article 267
Main Authors: Ullah, Irfan, Mukherjee, Sourav, Syed, Sidra, Mishra, Ashok Kumar, Ayugi, Brian Odhiambo, Aadhar, Saran
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural ecosystems
Agriculture
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric circulation
Climate change
Drought
Human influences
Moisture
Spring
Spring (season)
Summer
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Summary:Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of droughts that affect agriculture, water, and ecosystems and are commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics and underlying mechanisms in South Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariate approach to analyze the onset speed, frequency, severity, duration, and return period of flash droughts, and the role of atmospheric circulation and human-induced climate change. We find that flash droughts are more common and intense in the crop season, especially in central India, western Pakistan, and eastern Afghanistan. They are caused by persistent atmospheric patterns that block moisture transport to South Asia. Additionally, anthropogenic climate change has intensified flash droughts in the spring-summer season, with a median fraction of attributable risk of 60%, 80%, and 90% for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, respectively. Our results suggest that flash droughts will expand and worsen in the future, requiring adaptation measures for the water, agriculture, and energy sectors.
ISSN:2662-4435
2662-4435
DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01390-y