Regional and Seasonal Dependence of the Potential Contrail Cover and the Potential Contrail Cirrus Cover over Europe

Ambient weather conditions strongly impact contrail formation and persistence. The implementation of contrail avoidance and mitigation strategies, therefore, requires regional and altitude-dependent information on the frequency of contrail occurrence. To this end, we have developed a method to quant...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Aerospace 2022-09, Vol.9 (9), p.485
Main Authors: Dischl, Rebecca, Kaufmann, Stefan, Voigt, Christiane
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aircraft
Airplane engines
Altitude
Aviation
Aviation fuel
Climatology
Clouds
Contrail formation
contrail formation and persistence
contrail statistics
Contrails
Cooling
Efficiency
Evaluation
Heat
Humidity
Kerosene
Meteorological data
Radiation
Regional analysis
Relative humidity
Schmidt–Appleman criterion
Seasonal variations
Temperature
Weather conditions
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Ambient weather conditions strongly impact contrail formation and persistence. The implementation of contrail avoidance and mitigation strategies, therefore, requires regional and altitude-dependent information on the frequency of contrail occurrence. To this end, we have developed a method to quantify the potential contrail cover based on 10 years of high-resolution reanalysis of climatology and weather data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). We use the Schmidt–Appleman threshold temperature for contrail formation and additionally select thresholds for the relative humidity to evaluate the occurrence of persistent contrails and assess their regional and seasonal variation. We find a potential contrail cirrus cover of 10% to 20% above Europe at higher altitudes of 200 and 250 hPa in the 10-year climatology and a weak seasonal variation. At lower altitudes, near 300 hPa, a steep onset and a high potential contrail cirrus cover of 20% is found in late fall and in winter, decreasing to 2% potential contrail cirrus cover in summer. In comparison to ECMWF data, evaluations using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) show a significantly lower potential contrail cirrus cover. Our results help to investigate the seasonal and altitude dependence of contrail mitigation strategies, in particular for warming nighttime contrails that contribute strongly to the total climate impact from aviation.
ISSN:2226-4310
2226-4310
DOI:10.3390/aerospace9090485