Trait prediction through computational intelligence and machine learning applied to the improvement of white oat (Avena sativa L)

• Published in: Revista Ceres 2024, Vol.71
• Main Authors: Silva, Antônio Carlos da, Sant’Anna, Isabela Castro, Silva, Michele Jorge da, Bhering, Leonardo Lopes, Nascimento, Moysés, Carvalho, Ivan Ricardo, Silva, José Antônio Gonzalez da, Cruz, Cosme Damião
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY; Artificial neural networks; Avena sativa L; decision trees; multiple regression
• ISSN: 0034-737X; 2177-3491; 2177-3491
• DOI: 10.1590/0034-737x2024710045

ABSTRACT The prediction of traits allows the breeder to guide strategies to select and accelerate the progress of genetic improvement. The objective of this work was to determine the best prediction approach and establish a network with better predictive power for white oat using methodologies based on artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Seventy-eight white oat genotypes were evaluated. The design was randomized blocks with three replications. The models were evaluated with and without fungicide, and prediction models were established using four sets of experiments. The grain yield was used as a response trait the others as explanatory traits. The coefficient of determination was considered to evaluate the proposed methodologies. The importance of the traits was assessed through the impact of destructuring or disturbing the information of a given input on the estimation of R2. For machine learning, decision trees, bagging, random forest, and boosting were used. The traits indicated to assist in decision-making are plant height, leaf rust severity, and lodging percentage. The R2 ranged from 30.14% - 96.45% and 10.57% - 94.61% for computational intelligence and machine learning, respectively. A high estimate of the coefficient of determination, which was larger than the other estimates, was obtained using the bagging technique.