Operation Opera: an Ambiguous Success

To assess the efficacy of Israel’s strike on Osirak, one must determine Israel’s strategic objectives and their material effects on Iraqi capabilities. The capacity of the facilities to produce fissionable material without detection remains in dispute. So, too, does the timeline—and therefore the im...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of strategic security 2010-12, Vol.3 (4), p.49-62
Main Author: Kirschenbaum, Joshua
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Ambiguity
Cost-benefit analysis
Efficacy
International relations
International security
Iraq
Israel
Middle East
Military affairs
Military air strikes
Military strategy
Motivation
Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear reactors
Nuclear weapons
Nuclear weapons and nonproliferation
Opera
Success
Wisdom
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Summary:To assess the efficacy of Israel’s strike on Osirak, one must determine Israel’s strategic objectives and their material effects on Iraqi capabilities. The capacity of the facilities to produce fissionable material without detection remains in dispute. So, too, does the timeline—and therefore the imminence—of Iraqi acquisition of a nuclear option. The political cost-benefit equation in this case requires a fair dose of subjective judgment. How much did the Israelis delay the program? How much did Iraqi motivation increasepost facto? Is military counter-proliferation a viable strategy? Was the potential Iraqi bomb worth risking a bold, unprovoked attack that inevitably drew the condemnation of the world? Did the raid,in toto, raise or lower the risk of regional proliferation in the Middle East? All of these considerations must factor into an informed opinion on the retrospective wisdom of Begin’s decision.
ISSN:1944-0464
1944-0472
DOI:10.5038/1944-0472.3.4.3