Benefits and Challenges of a Stakeholder-Driven Shellfish Toxicity Forecast in Coastal Maine

Paralytic shellfish poison (PSP) is a human health concern for shellfish aquaculture and wild harvest. This paper discusses lessons learned from a forecasting program for PSP in coastal Maine, USA, designed based on stakeholder input, and run in an operational mode for the 2021 season. The forecast...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Frontiers in Marine Science 2022-07, Vol.9
Main Authors: Record, Nicholas R., Evanilla, Johnathan, Kanwit, Kohl, Burnell, Craig, Cartisano, Carmen, Lewis, Bryant J., MacLeod, Jill, Tupper, Benjamin, Miller, David W., Tracy, Adrienne T., White, Carol, Moretti, Matt, Hamilton, Ben, Barner, Cameron, Archer, Stephen D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
forecast
harmful algal bloom
Maine
neural network
paralytic shellfish toxin
stakeholder
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Summary:Paralytic shellfish poison (PSP) is a human health concern for shellfish aquaculture and wild harvest. This paper discusses lessons learned from a forecasting program for PSP in coastal Maine, USA, designed based on stakeholder input, and run in an operational mode for the 2021 season. The forecast uses a deep learning algorithm to make site-specific, probabilistic forecasts at a weekly forecast range for toxin levels measured in shellfish tissue. Forecasts had high accuracy in the 2021 season, correctly predicting closure events and locations despite a highly unusual season. Stakeholders reported a positive view of the forecast system, and stakeholder input continues to be of key importance as further modifications are made to the system. There are benefits and challenges to the stakeholder-based design of the system.
ISSN:2296-7745
2296-7745
DOI:10.3389/fmars.2022.923738