Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates

• Published in: Nature communications 2019-12, Vol.10 (1), p.5512-8, Article 5512
• Main Authors: Baker, Rachel E., Mahmud, Ayesha S., Wagner, Caroline E., Yang, Wenchang, Pitzer, Virginia E., Viboud, Cecile, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Grenfell, Bryan T.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 631/158/1469; 692/699/255/2514; 704/106/694/2739/2807; Child; Child, Preschool; Children; Climate; Climate models; Climatology; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemics; Female; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Humidity; Incidence; Infectious diseases; Influenza; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Influenza, Human - transmission; Male; Mathematical models; Mexico - epidemiology; multidisciplinary; Rainfall; Respiratory syncytial virus; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Seasons; Statistical analysis; Temperature; Viruses
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y

A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall. Climate affects dynamics of infectious diseases, but the impact on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology isn’t well understood. Here, Baker et al. model the influence of temperature, humidity and rainfall on RSV epidemiology in the USA and Mexico and predict impact of climate change on RSV dynamics.