A VMD–CISSA–LSSVM Based Electricity Load Forecasting Model

Accurate power load forecasting has an important impact on power systems. In order to improve the load forecasting accuracy, a new load forecasting model, VMD–CISSA–LSSVM, is proposed. The model combines the variational modal decomposition (VMD) data preprocessing method, the sparrow search algorith...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematics (Basel) 2022-01, Vol.10 (1), p.28
Main Authors: Wang, Guijuan, Wang, Xinheng, Wang, Zuoxun, Ma, Chunrui, Song, Zengxu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Artificial intelligence
chaotic mapping
Convergence
Electrical loads
Electricity
Experiments
Forecasting
Genetic algorithms
load forecasting
machine learning
Mathematical models
Mathematics
Neural networks
Noise
Optimization
Optimization algorithms
Search algorithms
Simulation
sparrow search algorithm
Support vector machines
Time series
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Summary:Accurate power load forecasting has an important impact on power systems. In order to improve the load forecasting accuracy, a new load forecasting model, VMD–CISSA–LSSVM, is proposed. The model combines the variational modal decomposition (VMD) data preprocessing method, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model. A multi-strategy improved chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CISSA) is proposed to address the shortcomings of the SSA algorithm, which is prone to local optima and a slow convergence. The initial population is generated using an improved tent chaotic mapping to enhance the quality of the initial individuals and population diversity. Second, a random following strategy is used to optimize the position update process of the followers in the sparrow search algorithm, balancing the local exploitation performance and global search capability of the algorithm. Finally, the Levy flight strategy is used to expand the search range and local search capability. The results of the benchmark test function show that the CISSA algorithm has a better search accuracy and convergence performance. The volatility of the original load sequence is reduced by using VMD. The optimal parameters of the LSSVM are optimized by the CISSA. The simulation test results demonstrate that the VMD–CISSA–LSSVM model has the highest prediction accuracy and stabler prediction results.
ISSN:2227-7390
2227-7390
DOI:10.3390/math10010028